EUSTT

The Korean Triad: Measuring the Effectiveness of the Inter-Korean Peace Negotiation

Pau Álvarez Aragonès, December 30, 2021.

Social Sciences – International Relations

Abstract: Since the armistice of July 1953, the fire between both Koreas stopped – yet the war has not officially ended, as there has not been any peace treaty to date. However, 2018 marked relevant diplomatic efforts: the first one, between both Koreas, in April 2018 through the Panmunjom Declaration; the second one, between the US and North Korea, in June 2018 through the Singapore Declaration. Also, in 2019, negotiations restarted in Hanoi, Vietnam. This paper handles the following research question: “Have the diplomatic summits in 2018 and 2019 been effective towards the development of an inter-Korean peace agreement?”. In order to answer the question, this paper has tried to measure the effectiveness of the Summits through the degree of compliance with the main points of the Summits using three categories as the main elements for a peace treaty: security provisions, economic cooperation and identity construction. These three categories will be used to compare the scenario pre-2018 to post-2018 through several indicators: the Nuclear Security Index (NTI), the Inter-Korean Integration Index (IPUS), etc. Through the analysis, we find that in terms of content, the Panmunjom Declaration is more detailed, complete and interdisciplinary than the Singapore Declaration. The analysis discloses that diplomatic efforts have not been effective enough, even if the sub-category of sports diplomacy has presented a sustained amelioration in Inter-Korean relations.

Keywords. — Korea, peace treaty, negotiation, diplomacy, effectiveness.

Disclaimer: The views, information and opinions in the written publications are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect those shared by the Eutopia Student Think Tank (EUSTT) nor the EUTOPIA Alliance.

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Pau Álvarez Aragonès

Student at Pompeu Fabra University in his last year of Political Science and Global Studies. His great interest in the foreign relations of the European Union has led him to join all kinds of related organizations and think-tanks: UNSA Barcelona, deba-t.org, and European Guanxi.  Previously, he worked as an intern in the Public Affairs department of Hill + Knowlton Strategies, specializing in the management of NextGen funds. He has also been part of the organization team of the EUTOPIA Week. You can contact him on LinkedIn and Twitter